What a macro regime is
A macro regime is the prevailing state of financial conditions: whether rates, credit, volatility, liquidity and growth signals are, on balance, supportive of risk assets or hostile to them. Risk-on and risk-off are the two ends of that range.
A regime read describes conditions. It says nothing about the next price move on its own, and it changes slowly compared with intraday price action.
The four buckets
The MacroRegimeBot board groups its 21 scored factors into four buckets. Each bucket answers one question.
- Rates
- What is the cost of money doing? Examples: the 10-year Treasury yield, the 2s10s curve, real yields, 5-year breakeven inflation.
- Vol/Credit
- How much stress is priced? Examples: VIX, MOVE (Treasury volatility), high-yield credit spreads, high-yield versus investment-grade bond ETFs.
- Liquidity
- Is money being added to or drained from the system? Examples: Fed balance sheet net of the Treasury account and reverse repo, the Chicago Fed financial conditions index, foreign flows into US securities.
- Growth
- Do markets price expansion or slowdown? Examples: the dollar index, USD/JPY, copper versus gold, crude oil, semiconductor equities, market breadth.
The full list, with public sources and update frequency, is on Method.
From factors to a label
Each factor is scored from free public data after the close. The scores roll up into a composite, shown as a percent from deep risk-off to full risk-on, and into one light per bucket: green, white for mixed, or red. The composite maps to five labels: RISK-OFF, LEAN RISK-OFF, NEUTRAL, LEAN RISK-ON, RISK-ON.
Confidence is the share of factors that agree with the overall direction. It measures agreement, not probability. When buckets point different ways the board marks the print as diverged. A diverged print with low confidence is a weak read.
Weights and scoring rules are not published. The inputs are public: every series on the board comes from a public source, and the daily output is free as JSON on Data.
Today's board
Last close used: Fri 16 Oct 2026. Regime LEAN RISK-OFF, composite -28.3. Read the full board, bucket lights and factor table on the home page.
What a regime read is not
It is not a trade signal, an entry, or a forecast. A LEAN RISK-ON print does not mean prices will rise tomorrow. A regime read is context: it can inform how much risk to carry, whether to lean with or against a move, and when to stand aside. Price can and does move against the regime for long stretches.
The board is an independent recompute from public data. Series can be late, revised or stale. Stale series are shown as stale and never estimated.
Where to go next
Research overlay. Not investment advice. See Disclaimer.